Natural Gas, WTI Reject Trendlines Despite Supply Risks

Persistent disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor crude oil prices, even as U.S. inventories rise and technical resistance stalls the recovery. Shipping activity in the Persian Gulf remained well below pre-conflict levels in early August, with west-to-east tanker movement still constrained. The Iran-Oman talks, if successful, could ease transit restrictions, analysts said. The physical market has not yet balanced, leaving it vulnerable to shocks.

OPEC+ raised production targets in July, and Gulf producers increased output. Volumes remained well short of previous levels. New supply from the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana helped fill the gap.

West Texas Intermediate crude bounced from the $74.20 support and traded near $78.48, just above the key demand zone at $77.75. Prices remain below the 50-period and 100-period exponential moving averages. The long-term descending trendline still caps the upside. Strong resistance sits between $79.50 and $80.00. The relative strength index crossed the mid-level to 51, supporting further bullish movement, traders said. A break above the resistance zone would open the path to $81.92 and $86.16. Support lies at $77.75 and $74.21.

Brent crude traded around $83.89 after bouncing off the rising trendline at $78.30. Prices held above the 50-period EMA at $83.80. They remained below the 100-period EMA at $84.59. The RSI moved to 57, the first sign of a bullish trend, traders said. A move above $84.60 would target resistance at $86.33, $91.13, and $95.23. The first support stands at $82.17, followed by the trendline at $78.26. As long as Brent holds above the 50-EMA, the case for a push to the 100-EMA strengthens.