
Natural gas consolidates for a fifth session between $2.82 support and $2.97 resistance. A break below support targets $2.68, while a rally above $2.96 could signal a reversal.
Natural gas stayed near recent lows for a fifth consecutive session on Friday, with prices holding inside a narrow range set by Thursday's wide candle. The $2.97 high marked that session's resistance, while the $2.82 low defined support. That floor coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior advance at $2.84 and a higher swing low at $2.86. The cluster of support has prevented a breakdown, yet buyers have not stepped in with enough force to push prices back above the 100-day moving average.
The narrow consolidation below that average is a bearish signal, several traders said. The 100-day MA capped the bounce, and the failure to attract meaningful buying suggests sellers remain in control. The broader trend structure reinforces that view. The most recent swing high at $3.40 marked a lower high, followed by a break below the uptrend line and the 200-day moving average. Former support at the 200-day MA has now turned into resistance, a pattern that often precedes a resumption of the downtrend.
A decisive move above $2.96 would reclaim the 100-day moving average and open the path toward the 50-day MA at $3.08, then the 20-day MA near $3.13. Traders said that zone is expected to act as a barrier where sellers may re-enter. A sustained decline below $2.82, confirmed by a daily close under that level, would target the $2.68-$2.69 area, where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and an interim swing low converge.
The next directional signal depends on a daily close outside the $2.82-$2.97 range, traders said. Until then, the consolidation is a test of whether the bearish trend structure holds or buyers reclaim key resistance. For more on natural gas trading, see the related analysis of short positioning and the front-month support test.
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