
Natural gas tests $2.66 support after a smaller storage build; WTI crude bounces from $75.10 after a massive 7.17 million barrel inventory draw.
A massive 7.17 million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories pushed WTI off its lows on Wednesday, reversing two days of sharp declines. The Energy Information Administration reported total commercial crude stocks fell to 404.5 million barrels, a 6% deficit to the five-year seasonal average. Refinery utilization hit 97.2% of capacity, consuming 17.3 million barrels a day.
WTI crude traded at $75.90 a barrel after touching $75.10 earlier in the session. Brent crude recovered to $79.62, its first move back above $80 after dipping below that level for the first time since July. The slide had been driven by progress in Qatari-mediated talks aimed at deescalating U.S.-Iran tensions and securing safer passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
That risk premium has partially unwound, but the physical market in the U.S. appears tighter than expected. Refinery runs at near-maximum rates are absorbing supply faster than import flows can replenish it. The inventory draw was more than double the consensus estimate, traders said.
Natural gas markets offered a different picture. Underground storage added 28 Bcf for the week, below the expected build, bringing total working inventories to 3.084 Tcf. That is down 1% from a year ago but still 6.4% above the five-year average. The buffer has been enough to meet peak summer air conditioning demand, even as LNG exports draw a daily 12-13 Bcf.
Natural gas traded at $2.70, trying to recover from support at $2.66. A bullish trendline has formed on the retracement, but the price remains below both the 50-day EMA at $2.78 and the 100-day EMA at $2.86. The RSI has climbed from oversold territory to about 40, still below the neutral 50 line.
The next resistance sits at $2.74, then $2.81. Above those, a major supply zone around $2.87 is expected to cap rallies. On the downside, a break below $2.66 would open the door to $2.60. The report described any bounce below the moving averages as a correction, not a bullish reversal.
WTI crude broke below its ascending trendline and the $78.40 support level, confirming a bearish market structure. Prices are well below the 50-EMA at $81.21 and the 100-EMA at $81.46. The RSI at 34 is not yet oversold, so the report sees no reversal signal. A move back above $78.40 would relieve selling pressure, but a sustained break above $82.30 would be needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
Below $75.10, support is seen at $74.00 and $70.70. The broken trendline and the $78.40 pivot are now resistance. As long as WTI stays below those levels, the bias remains bearish and rallies are likely to attract sellers.
Brent crude fell through the $80.56 support and its trendline, reaching $78.90. The 50-EMA and 100-EMA at $85.26 and $85.47 confirm a medium-term bearish trend. Support is forming around $77.00 and $73.98. The first resistance after the breakdown is $80.56; a full recovery would require a close above $85.58. The RSI has dropped to 35, showing strong downside momentum but approaching oversold conditions. Buyers have not reclaimed the former support zone above $80.56, leaving Brent technically weak.
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