
Natural gas futures oscillated near the $2.00 floor as weak demand capped rallies while traders watched for cooler weather and potential European demand due to Middle East tensions, a senior analyst said.
Natural gas futures held near the $2.00 floor Monday, oscillating in a narrow band as weak demand capped rallies. The market is rolling into the October contract later this week.
Chris, a senior analyst at FXEmpire, said the sideways action is typical before a roll. Temperatures are expected to drift lower later this month, which could boost consumption in the northeastern U.S., the region that burns a large share of the country's gas.
The bigger variable is Europe, Chris said. If the Middle East situation does not ease, European buyers will be forced to import more U.S. liquefied natural gas. That dynamic is not yet priced in. A floor could emerge if European demand materializes ahead of winter, he said.
Short-term sell-offs have drawn buyers, while rallies stall quickly, he said. Without a serious heatwave, air conditioning demand is not pushing prices higher, he added. Chris said the $2.00 level has acted as support, with resistance near $2.20. He said the market lacks a clear directional catalyst and is likely to remain choppy until the weather shift or a geopolitical trigger emerges.
The Natural Gas: 207K Shorts Face Heat Test as Front-Month Holds Support analysis highlights the positioning risk for short-sellers if a catalyst emerges.
The weekly storage report is the next scheduled data point. It will show whether inventories are building at a pace that keeps the supply cushion ample.
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