Natural Gas Holds Above $2.81; Breakout Targets $2.99

The rebound follows an extreme Fibonacci retracement that took prices to an 88.6% pullback of the prior advance before a sharp bullish reversal on Monday. Since then, pullbacks have been mild and a new high was reached midweek, suggesting another wave of buying could push through resistance. A decisive breakout above Wednesday's high targets the lower swing high of $2.99, a level reinforced by the 50% retracement of the prior decline at $2.98. On the way there, the 100-day moving average near $2.92 could act as resistance, having been confirmed as a ceiling during the prior short-term advance.

A failure to hold gains would change the picture. A drop below Wednesday's low of $2.74 could trigger a deeper pullback toward Monday's low of $2.70 or Friday's high of $2.69, keeping the downtrend structure intact and maintaining downward pressure. Given the completed retracement and the sharp advance off the bottom, another leg higher remains possible unless the recent low breaks to the downside.

The immediate test is whether the contract can reclaim the 20-day moving average and sustain a close above $2.81. A successful breakout strengthens the case for a move toward $2.92 and eventually the $2.98-$2.99 zone. Traders tracking the commodity can monitor natural gas positioning for shifts in speculative interest alongside the price action.