
Natural gas futures fell below the 50-day EMA after failing to hold $3, with $2.65 as a potential floor ahead of the October contract shift, FX Empire analyst Chris said.
Natural gas futures fell below the 50-day exponential moving average on Friday after failing to hold the $3 level, according to FX Empire senior analyst Chris. The rejection came as the market rolled into the October contract, a shift that typically marks the start of the seasonal turn toward heating demand.
Chris said the weather outlook remains mild, but the October contract can be the beginning of a turnaround. "It just comes down to weather prediction," he said. He noted that Qatar has recently been buying liquefied natural gas from the United States to help fulfill contractual obligations in Europe, a factor that could provide a price floor.
"I am becoming increasingly bullish as time goes on," Chris said, though he added that it is still early for that view. He has shifted from "very bearish to somewhat neutral." He sees the $3 level as a ceiling and the $2.65 area as a potential floor, though the contract roll may lift that floor higher.
The move below the 50-day EMA follows a rejection at $3 in the prior session. The October contract settled near $2.80 before the selloff. Chris said he is watching weather forecasts to drive the next move, with no clear predictions for several weeks.
For more on positioning and the natural gas market, see Natural Gas: 207K Shorts Face Heat Test as Front-Month Holds Support.
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