Natural Gas: $2.81 Resistance Holds, Bears Retain Control

If buyers can reclaim $2.81 on a closing basis, the next upside target sits at the 100-day moving average near $2.93. That level was tested as resistance during a nine-day consolidation range that followed a breach of the same moving average on July 10. A pullback to test the broken moving average as resistance is a typical pattern. The first such test on July 10 led to a bearish continuation. A second test near $2.93 would provide a clearer read on whether short-term momentum is shifting.

Beyond $2.93, the lower swing high at $2.99 becomes the next target. A breakout above that level is possible if the 100-day MA is reclaimed, traders said. For now, $2.81 remains the key dividing line between bearish continuation and a potential trend reversal. The recent short-covering pressure, highlighted by a massive short position that could be squeezed if prices break higher, adds a layer of risk for bears holding positions below resistance.

Tuesday's price action effectively confirmed that sellers are still willing to defend the $2.81–$2.82 zone. Until that changes, the path of least resistance remains lower, with the 20-day moving average acting as a ceiling. A daily close below $2.70 would open the door toward deeper support levels. A close above $2.81 would reset the short-term outlook.

For a deeper look at the positioning dynamics behind this setup, see Natural Gas: 207K Shorts Face Heat Test as Front-Month Holds Support.