Missed Connections Booth Signals Shift in Dating App Strategy

A pop-up photobooth in New York City is pairing thousands of single people based on a 26-question survey and a $10 fee. The catch: no last names, no contact info, only a first name and four black-and-white photos. Since mid-July, 3,500 people have used the booth, and lines have wrapped around the block some days, said Liam McGregor, cofounder of Matchbox, the dating startup behind the stunt.

The booth is a collaboration with Meet Cutes NYC and Faceplace. It is not a replacement for dating apps, McGregor told a reporter. If someone wants a date this Friday, he said, the photobooth is the wrong place. But the booth taps into something the dating-app industry is struggling to address: swipe fatigue.

Match Group and Bumble, the two largest publicly traded dating-app operators, have been pushing into in-person events and AI matchmaking tools. Tinder launched a live events feature in select cities last year. Bumble has rolled out IRL experiences in several markets. The photobooth's viral social media traction suggests the demand for offline discovery is real, analysts said.

The booth's operator, Marriage Pact, raised a $5 million seed round led by Bain Capital Ventures in 2022. Its algorithm, which also powers Matchbox, relies on a compatibility survey similar to the one used at Stanford University. Another startup, 222, has raised $13.7 million to date for its IRL social app.

McGregor, 28, met his fiancee through mutual friends. The pop-up will remain in New York through August, with plans to expand to other cities, he said.

For publicly traded dating companies, the challenge is converting this trend into revenue. Tinder parent Match Group reported first-quarter revenue of $882 million, up 9% from a year earlier. Bumble's revenue rose 7% to $268 million. Both companies cited improving user engagement, but average revenue per user has been flat or declining in recent quarters, according to company filings.

The photobooth's model does not generate direct revenue for Match or Bumble. But the sentiment it captures -- a desire for serendipitous, low-stakes connection without endless swiping -- mirrors what younger users tell market researchers. In a survey by the dating-app analytics firm Apptopia posted in June, 42% of respondents aged 18-34 said they were looking for ways to meet people outside of apps.

Morgan Stanley analysts noted in a July report that the next battleground for dating apps could be physical events, but questioned whether the margins would match digital. Real-world events carry venue, staffing and insurance costs that app-only models avoid. Match Group and Bumble have not disclosed how much they spend on IRL initiatives.

The pressure is not uniform across the sector. Match Group owns multiple brands: Tinder, Hinge, OkCupid and others. Hinge, which markets itself as the app designed to be deleted, has grown faster than Tinder in recent quarters. Its revenue rose 24% in the first quarter, outpacing Tinder's 4% gain.

Bumble, the smaller of the two, has focused on women-first safety features and recently launched a video dating option. Its stock has fallen 38% this year through Friday's close, compared with Match Group's 14% decline.

The photobooth fad alone will not move earnings. But it is one more signal that the industry's old swipe-to-match interface is losing its hold, especially in dense urban markets like New York. Dating app stocks are pricing in a growth slowdown. The next catalyst for the sector will be how effectively each company can turn real-world engagement into subscription revenue.

McGregor sees the booth as a brand builder, not a business. The only contact information the booth collects is an email address, used to send the photo strip. No profiles are stored. No matches can be messaged. It is, he said, a bet on whimsy.