MCX Natural Gas: Trendline Bounce Sets Up Move to 328

Natural gas futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange reversed a two-week slide last week. The contract touched a low of ₹286.20 per mmBtu before rallying roughly 8% to trade near ₹309.

The bounce came at a trendline support that has anchored the short-term uptrend since late April. That level held, and the recovery from it opens a new leg higher. The path of least resistance points up.

Support now sits at ₹302 and ₹299. On the upside, ₹314 is the immediate hurdle. A close above that would target ₹328 initially. If ₹328 gives way, the next objective is ₹340. That sequence assumes the trendline holds and volume confirms the breakout.

There is a risk of a pause before the move completes. A first attempt at ₹328 could fail, triggering a pullback to ₹315 or ₹313. That would not break the pattern – it would reset the entry before another run at ₹340.

The near-term view flips only if the contract closes below ₹299. That would open a fall back to the ₹288–₹286 zone. Based on the momentum from the trendline, that looks unlikely.

A long position on dips to ₹306 or ₹302 with a stop at ₹294 matches the setup. Once the price reaches ₹312, raise the stop to ₹309. At ₹319, move it to ₹316; at ₹324, to ₹321. Exit the position at ₹326, just under the first target.

The confirming factor will be a clean break of ₹314 on above-average volume. The invalidating factor is a loss of ₹299 – that would put the trendline at risk and shift the bias lower.