Crypto markets face a packed week with the Fed rate decision, PCE data, Strategy earnings, and BitMEX settlements. Bitcoin holds near $65,500 as traders weigh macro risks.
Crypto markets opened the week on slightly firmer footing as traders sized up a dense macro calendar that could shift sentiment across risk assets. Bitcoin rose 1% to $65,500 before slipping back below the $66,000 resistance level that has capped its range for nearly two months. Ethereum climbed 3.5% to $1,960, touching a seven-week high but still unable to reclaim $2,000. Total crypto capitalization pushed to $2.3 trillion over the weekend, according to CoinGecko data.
The Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday anchors the week. July Consumer Confidence data lands Tuesday, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, PCE, follows Thursday. CME FedWatch on Monday showed a 63.7% probability of no change and a 36.3% chance of a quarter-point increase. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference will be parsed for how policymakers view tech-sector valuations and AI infrastructure spending, traders said.
Other major central banks are also in play. The Bank of England is widely expected to hold at 3.75%. The Bank of Japan is forecast to stay at 1% before considering another hike later in the year. Strong U.S. GDP and PCE prints on Thursday could reinforce higher-for-longer expectations, pressuring crypto through stronger yields and a firmer dollar.
Earnings from Robinhood, Coinbase, and Strategy offer a read on retail participation and digital-asset treasury positioning. Strategy's latest disclosure showed institutional funds increased their average position in STRC by 105%, reaching $3.5 million per fund. BlackRock and VanEck led the buying, the filing said.
Crypto-specific catalysts also crowd the calendar. BitMEX will settle 35 derivatives contracts this week. FTX begins distributing roughly $900 million to creditors, a process that could inject liquidity into the market. Token unlocks, governance votes, and protocol upgrades round out a packed slate.
On Hyperliquid, tokenized RWA contracts generated $25.1 billion in volume from July 13 to July 19, representing 52% of the platform's $48.2 billion weekly total, the exchange said. The shift toward real-world asset tokenization has accelerated as traders seek yield-bearing collateral, several market participants noted.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev's X account was hacked over the weekend to promote a fake token called "Vladhood." The company said it had secured the account and was investigating. The incident follows a string of high-profile social media compromises in the crypto space this year.
CryptoQuant data showed ERC-20 stablecoin net flow near $62.8 million, a modest improvement that remains far below the multibillion-dollar inflow waves that preceded previous rallies. "Stablecoin buying power is still missing from the market," CryptoQuant analysts wrote in a note.
Brent crude climbed to $97.66, its highest level since mid-May, after Iran signaled it would halt attacks if Washington maintains restraint. The geopolitical easing helped U.S. stock futures and crypto benchmarks start the week with modest gains, though volatility risks remain elevated, traders said.
The Fed decision lands Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.
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