Macquarie Starts Adani Power at Neutral, ₹230 Target

Macquarie initiated coverage on Adani Power with a Neutral rating and a ₹230 target price, based on 15 times two-year forward EV/EBITDA, the brokerage said.

India's power demand remains structurally strong despite a recent growth slowdown, Macquarie analysts wrote. The demand is anchored by industrial expansion and 24x7 commercial loads from data centres, with residential cooling demand adding further pressure. May peak demand hit about 271 GW during an intense heatwave, highlighting tight supply-demand dynamics with minimal operating headroom even during solar hours.

The power value chain is on a healthier footing, the analysts said. Capacity additions run at about 50 GW a year, led by renewables. Transmission networks are undergoing a record capex cycle as part of a ₹9-lakh crore long-term grid expansion plan.

More critically, distribution company finances have turned the corner. Discoms posted a historic, positive all-India net profit of about ₹2,700 crore, Macquarie noted. AT&C losses compressed to about 15% versus about 23% in FY14. Strict late payment surcharge rules liquidated nearly 96% of legacy generation dues by early 2026.

The Neutral rating and ₹230 target imply the stock already prices in much of the structural improvement. With the stock trading near that level, the upside appears limited. The rating leaves the investment case dependent on execution and whether demand growth can sustain without a cyclical pullback.