Macleod: Gold Could Double to $8,000 on Oil Crisis Parallel

Alasdair Macleod, writing for King World News, argues that gold and silver are at the start of a rally that could lift the metal to $8,000 within months. The catalyst, he says, is a repeat of the 1973–1974 oil crisis, when OPEC's price hikes initially knocked gold down 30% before it doubled in just over three months.

Macleod points to a sea change in investor attitudes. After the U.S. struck Iran on Feb. 28, gold fell from $5,320 and silver from $93. Weak holders were flushed out. Open interest on Comex dropped to exceptionally low levels. Now, he says, open interest is recovering, which he interprets as smart money accumulating long positions.

Behind the recovery, Macleod sees heavy buying by China. The People's Bank of China has been adding to its gold reserves during the price decline, and Chinese commercial banks are importing large quantities of non-monetary gold. Securities Daily reported that banks are promoting retail gold accumulation accounts with spread reductions and per-gram discounts. Macleod calls the potential market "over $5 trillion equivalent" of household savings.

"The penultimate insiders close to the PBOC have called the bottom in gold prices," Macleod writes. He notes that from mid-July, gold and silver have begun to rise alongside oil and the 10-year Treasury yield. That marks a shift from the recent pattern where negative news triggered markdowns.

The oil supply disruption is central to his thesis. Macleod argues that the U.S. has been containing oil prices by releasing strategic reserves, but that policy is ending. Global shortages of diesel and kerosene will drive inflation far higher than expected, he says, citing the 1973–1974 precedent that sent U.S. consumer price inflation to 12%, Japan to 30%, and the UK to 25%.

Bond yields are threatening to move higher, confirming debt traps for G7 governments. U.S. government debt is approaching $40 trillion. Macleod believes the shift from holding dollar T-bills as a risk-free asset to holding gold has begun.

The question is whether gold's rally will follow the 1970s speed. Macleod says gold and silver are "seriously under-owned" for such an event. The PBOC's reserve increase, charted in his article, shows consistent accumulation during the price slide. He does not offer a specific timeline but draws the direct parallel to the 1973–1974 doubling.

For gold and crude oil traders, the argument hinges on whether the oil supply disruption broadens into a sustained crisis. The 1973 parallel is the strongest signal Macleod offers. Whether the market repeats that pattern is an open question, but the positioning data suggests a shift in sentiment is already underway.