Kalshi traders see 31% chance of crypto bill by December 2026

Industry groups like the American Gaming Association have been pushing to restrict sports prediction markets, a fight that creates procedural drag on the broader legislative package, according to people familiar with the process. The 15-9 committee vote was not unanimous. Some lawmakers still view comprehensive crypto legislation as premature or want to use the bill as leverage for other priorities.

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform that has reported billions of dollars in monthly trading volume, driven by event-specific contracts like this one.

If the bill clears the Senate floor vote in July, odds are likely to jump. If it stalls, the 31% figure will keep sliding, and the industry will wait for the next congressional cycle. The Senate floor vote is scheduled for July, though no exact date has been set.