July NFP Preview: +80k Jobs Expected, Fed Unlikely to Shift

The July non-farm payrolls report lands Friday with a consensus estimate of +80k jobs, up from June's +57k. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%.

Futures markets price about 63% odds of a rate hike in September, with roughly 35 basis points of tightening by year-end. The June 2025 curve shows about 50 basis points of total tightening.

Credit Agricole expects the July report to show continued stability, a result that would reinforce the status quo. The bank said the payrolls number is unlikely to shift the rate path.

A significant deviation from the consensus would be needed to change the market pricing. The US CPI report later in August may carry more weight for the September decision.

For forex market analysis, the payrolls number is a major input for the dollar's rate differential, which drives currency pairs.