JPMorgan analysts put CLARITY Act passage odds at 37% as Senate recess looms. The bank warns further delays give traditional finance a head start over public crypto networks.
Alpha Score of 63 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) warned Wednesday that fading odds for the CLARITY Act are a setback for crypto markets. Further delays give traditional finance infrastructure a bigger head start over public crypto networks, the bank's analysts said.
JPMorgan shares were up 1.38% at $349.46 on Thursday, with an Alpha Score of 63 out of 100 indicating moderate momentum.
Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou put CLARITY Act passage odds at just 37%, according to a report cited by CoinDesk. The Senate is heading into summer recess with four issues still unresolved: ethics provisions, stablecoin yield, DeFi rules, and anti-money laundering requirements.
"The longer the approval of the Clarity Act is postponed, the greater the threat to crypto markets from the growth of tokenization and blockchain-based applications eventually being absorbed by incumbent market infrastructure rather than accruing to public crypto networks," the analysts wrote.
The bank said the legislation would encourage institutional investment, boost US-regulated trading, and lower barriers for banks, exchanges, custodians, and market makers. Some of that momentum is already building regardless. Citadel Securities invested $400 million in Crypto.com, and the CFTC approved the first US-regulated perpetual crypto futures contracts.
JPMorgan also warned that provisions allowing some tokenized securities and derivatives to trade outside SEC or CFTC oversight could deter the institutional participation the bill aims to attract.
Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) finalized a new ethics compromise, though the specific language has not emerged publicly. The revised text still needs White House approval and enough Democratic buy-in to clear 60 votes.
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) expressed frustration on X Wednesday.
"After nearly 11 months of giving almost everything asked of us, I genuinely don't know what else my Democrat colleagues need before we act," she wrote.
The Senate heads into recess next week. If the bill does not clear cloture before then, September becomes the next realistic window. A failed September vote likely pushes it past the midterms entirely.
For more on the legislative stakes, see CLARITY Act delay risks US crypto lead, Haridopolos warns.
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