Jefferies Sees $1T Crypto IPO Market by 2031 on Tokenization

Jefferies has published a forecast that puts a concrete number on the crypto IPO pipeline. The Wall Street bank projects that public listings of crypto and blockchain-related companies could collectively reach a $1 trillion market capitalization by 2031. The forecast emerged from Jefferies' inaugural Digital Assets Investor Conference, held on May 27 in New York, which gathered about 150 institutional investors and executives from 35 digital asset firms.

The core thesis rests on two pillars: the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) and the integration of stablecoins into payments and settlements. Tokenization of RWAs means taking traditional financial instruments like money market funds and private credit and putting them on a blockchain, enabling faster settlement, around-the-clock trading, and access to a global investor base.

The IPO Pipeline and the 18-Month Window

Jefferies expects 10 to 15 crypto-native IPOs in the next 18 to 24 months. This is a material acceleration from the 2026 pace, which slowed compared to a more active 2025.

Named IPO Candidates

Several firms are already in the pipeline:

• Securitize, a platform focused on tokenized securities, is among the upcoming IPO candidates.
• Payward, the parent company of Kraken, has filed for an IPO.
• FalconX, the institutional crypto brokerage, has also filed.
• Bullish acquired Equiniti for $4.2 billion to bolster its tokenized securities infrastructure.

The conference consensus pointed toward a pivot away from speculative token plays and toward revenue-generating blockchain applications encompassing trading platforms, payment processors, lending protocols, and tokenized product issuers.

The Mechanism: Tokenization and Stablecoin Integration

Institutional interest in partnerships for faster settlement and 24/7 payments via stablecoins is increasing, according to the conference's takeaways. The conference also highlighted impending regulatory clarity as a catalyst.

Regulatory Catalyst

Legislation like the proposed CLARITY Act is expected to give firms the legal guardrails they need to go public. The bill, which has stalled in the Senate amid ethics fights, would clarify which digital assets are securities versus commodities. A clear legal framework reduces the legal liability risk that has kept many crypto firms private.

The Tokenization Thesis

Tokenization of real-world assets is not a theoretical concept. Money market funds and private credit are the early candidates. Placing these on a blockchain allows for:

• Faster settlement cycles (T+0 versus T+1 or T+2)
• 24/7 trading and redemption
• Access to a global investor base without intermediary gatekeepers

Practical rule: The $1 trillion figure is a ceiling, not a base case. It assumes that tokenized assets reach meaningful adoption in institutional portfolios and that stablecoins become a standard settlement rail. Both assumptions are contested.

What Would Confirm the Thesis

Several concrete markers would strengthen the Jefferies forecast:

1. Securitize, Kraken, or FalconX successfully completes an IPO with strong institutional demand. A successful listing would validate the regulatory and market readiness of the sector.
2. The CLARITY Act or similar legislation passes. Legal clarity removes the single biggest barrier to crypto firms going public.
3. A major asset manager tokenizes a significant fund (e.g., a money market fund or a private credit pool) and reports measurable adoption. This would prove the RWA thesis at scale.
4. Stablecoin transaction volumes in settlement and payments continue to grow faster than speculative trading volumes. This would indicate real economic use, not just crypto-native churn.

What Would Weaken the Thesis

Several risks could derail the forecast:

• Regulatory stall. If the CLARITY Act remains stuck and no alternative framework emerges, the legal uncertainty that has kept firms private will persist. IPOs would remain risky for crypto-native companies.
• A major hack or exchange failure. A repeat of the FTX-style collapse would set back institutional trust by years. The conference's focus on revenue-generating applications assumes that the speculative excess phase is over. A new blowup would revive that risk.
• Tokenization fails to scale. If the technical or operational challenges of tokenizing real-world assets prove harder than expected, the pipeline of tokenized product issuers shrinks. The $1 trillion figure depends on tokenization being a multi-trillion-dollar market, not a niche.
• Stablecoin regulation becomes hostile. If the US or EU imposes capital requirements or reserve rules that make stablecoins uneconomical for settlement, the payment infrastructure thesis collapses.

The Better Market Read

The naive read is that Jefferies is simply bullish on crypto and is projecting a wave of IPOs. The better read is that Jefferies is positioning itself as the go-to underwriter for crypto-native companies. The bank's inaugural conference and the $1 trillion forecast are marketing signals to potential IPO clients. The forecast is self-fulfilling to the extent that it attracts issuers.

The real question for investors is not whether 10 to 15 crypto IPOs happen. It is whether those IPOs are revenue-generating businesses with clear paths to profitability, or whether they are token projects dressed up as companies. The conference's emphasis on revenue-generating applications suggests Jefferies is betting on the former. The market will test that bet when the first major listing prices.

Affected Assets and Second-Order Effects

• Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are indirectly affected. A successful crypto IPO wave would validate the ecosystem and likely drive capital inflows to the largest assets. A failed IPO would have the opposite effect.
• Tokenized asset platforms like Securitize and institutional brokers like FalconX are direct beneficiaries if the thesis holds.
• Traditional exchanges like the NYSE and Nasdaq would gain listing fees and trading volumes from crypto IPOs. They are also exposed to the risk that a crypto-native exchange (e.g., Bullish) becomes a competitor.
• Venture capital firms with crypto exposure would see a liquidity event. A wave of IPOs would allow VC funds to return capital to limited partners, potentially freeing up new capital for early-stage crypto investments.

Risk to watch: The 18-to-24-month window is long enough for the macro environment to shift. A recession, a credit crunch, or a regulatory crackdown could push the timeline out. The $1 trillion figure is a bull-case scenario, not a central forecast.

The conference takeaway was that blockchain technology is transitioning from speculative investment toward a role within core financial infrastructure. If that transition is real, the IPO pipeline is the first major test. If it is not, the pipeline will remain a pipeline.