
Reuters Tankan shows manufacturers steady at +13 on AI demand; non-manufacturers ease to +25. Wholesale inflation at 6.3% in May keeps BOJ cautious.
Japan's manufacturers held steady in July while service-sector confidence slipped, the latest Reuters Tankan survey showed, pointing to a split in the economy that leaves the Bank of Japan's rate path dependent on whether price increases become entrenched.
The manufacturers' index stayed at plus-13 from June, supported by semiconductor and AI server demand. One manager at a precision machinery maker described order volumes and values as unprecedented, adding that capacity constraints were becoming a concern. Orders for electronic components were rising broadly, the survey found.
Non-manufacturers' sentiment eased to plus-25 from plus-32. Cost pressures from the Middle East conflict and a weak yen weighed on the sector, with rising interest rates adding to the squeeze. A manager in the service sector said that although signs of a resolution to the conflict were emerging, the situation had not fully recovered.
The survey, conducted July 1-10, drew responses from 218 of 511 firms. Positive readings indicate net optimism.
The results follow the BOJ's own Tankan earlier this month, which showed business sentiment at an eight-year high and corporate inflation expectations at record levels. The central bank has warned that the Middle East conflict was likely to prompt more firms to raise prices later this year. Japan's wholesale inflation hit 6.3% in May, the highest in three years.
Manufacturers expect sentiment to edge up to plus-14 in October. Non-manufacturers are seen holding at plus-25 as businesses assess geopolitical and supply-chain risks.
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