Iraq Won't Leave OPEC, Seeks Higher Quota

Iraq will not leave OPEC. The country is seeking a fair output quota within the group, government spokesman Haider al-Aboudi said.

Al-Aboudi’s statement comes before the next OPEC+ meeting, where members set supply policy for the second half of the year. Iraq is the bloc’s second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia, pumping roughly 4.3 million barrels a day under current quotas. The country has repeatedly pressed for a higher baseline. Its argument: years of war and underinvestment left it with a disproportionately low share of the production ceiling.

The push for a fair quota is not new. Iraq has historically overproduced its OPEC+ target. In early 2025 it pumped 200,000 bpd above its assigned limit. The extra output created tension inside the group, forcing Saudi Arabia to compensate with deeper cuts. Baghdad eventually agreed to make up the difference with additional cuts later in the year. Compliance has been uneven.

At the core of the dispute is the baseline calculation. OPEC+ quotas derive from production levels set in 2016, when Iraq’s infrastructure was still damaged from the Islamic State conflict. The country has since rebuilt capacity to around 5 million bpd. Its quota remains near 4.1 million. Iraq argues that the gap between capacity and quota leaves billions of dollars in revenue on the table.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have resisted major baseline revisions. They fear that unlocking Iraq’s full capacity would flood a market already absorbing voluntary cuts from other members. The UAE secured a 300,000 bpd baseline increase in 2024 after a similar campaign. Iraq wants a comparable deal.

Al-Aboudi’s remarks suggest the government is willing to negotiate inside the framework rather than exit. An OPEC exit would free Iraq to produce at full capacity. It would also forfeit the political cover the group provides for managing prices. The oil ministry has calculated that a collapse of the OPEC+ pact would send crude below $50 a barrel, a level that would strain Iraq’s budget. Baghdad needs oil near $75 to break even.

The market has largely shrugged off the rhetoric. Brent crude traded near $82 a barrel on Monday, unchanged after the Al-Aboudi statement. Traders have heard Iraq’s complaints before. The group’s internal mechanisms have contained past disputes.

The timing still matters. The OPEC+ meeting on June 1 will set quotas for the third quarter. Iraq’s demand for a fair share will be one of the main agenda items. If Baghdad secures a baseline increase, the extra supply could offset the extension of voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. If it is rebuffed, the risk of overproduction rises again.

The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for June 1.