Iran War Boosts BP and Shell, Reveals Strategic Divide

The Iran war pushed oil and gas prices sharply higher in the first quarter. Both BP and Shell posted big profit jumps as a result. President Trump has already attacked Exxon and Chevron for making "too much money." The two European majors face similar scrutiny. The similarities end at the revenue line.

BP reported adjusted earnings of $5.73 billion, more than double a year earlier and above the $5.11 billion consensus. Chief Executive Meg O'Neill used the surplus to cut net debt to $22.25 billion from $25.3 billion, raise the dividend 4%, and outline a five-point turnaround plan. Citi said BP has shed its status as the most indebted major oil firm. O'Neill herself admitted the company has "written off too much value" and that its cost base is not "resilient enough" for a low-price world. BP is still selling its U.S. biogas business, its North Sea assets, and its Austrian retail arm to fund the restructuring. Total liabilities sit near $40 billion, a level O'Neill called too high. The stock fell about 2% on earnings day as oil slipped on U.S.-Iran deal hopes. The company also removed its chairman over governance concerns this year.

Shell posted $9.84 billion in adjusted earnings, its best quarter since 2022 and above the $8.92 billion forecast. Net debt dropped to $41.75 billion from $52.6 billion. Shell maintained its 19th consecutive buyback of at least $3 billion. Integrated gas profit rose 55% despite a plant outage at the Pearl gas-to-liquids facility in Qatar, which has been offline since March after an attack. CEO Wael Sawan said Shell built a firm designed to "thrive through volatility." The Pearl outage will cost roughly 10% of total production. Repairs are expected to take about a year. Shell still trades at a discount to TotalEnergies and Eni, reflecting investor doubts about long-term upstream growth. Its year-to-date stock gain trails BP, Exxon, and Chevron.

Hedge fund data from Q1 2026 shows BP had 49 fund holders, down from 51. The dollar value held rose to about $5.78 billion. Shell had 45 holders, up from 43, with dollar value at about $5.67 billion. Exxon had 94 holders, down from 98. Chevron had 103, up from 86.

AlphaScala's proprietary scores give Shell a 51 out of 100 (Mixed) and BP a 60 (Moderate), both in the Energy sector. Chevron scores 49 (Mixed). The scores reflect each company's current risk-adjusted profile after the war-driven earnings lift.

Shell's Pearl GTL plant in Qatar has been offline since March after an attack, costing roughly 10% of total production. Repairs are expected to take about a year. BP's total liabilities remain near $40 billion, a level O'Neill called too high. The company aims to cut that further through asset sales.