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Iran talks reverse oil spike, dollar slips as risk appetite returns
Oil fell back after Iran agreed to a 60-day roadmap, reversing Monday's spike. The dollar slipped as risk appetite improved. Trump signs orders at 15:30 EDT. Ras Laffan and China rare earth controls add risk.
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The session flipped on a joint statement from Qatari and Pakistani mediators. Monday opened with Strait of Hormuz traffic down to five vessels after Iran announced a closure and walked out of the Lake Lucerne talks. Oil spiked, the dollar churned, and the fragile optimism from last week looked like it might not survive the weekend.
It did not hold. The mediators announced an 18-hour session produced a 60-day roadmap, a High Level Committee, working groups on nuclear and sanctions, plus a dedicated communication line for Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi went further: the blockade is lifted, frozen assets are moving, and a reconstruction plan for Iran is underway. Oil slipped back into the red. The dollar followed, losing ground against the yen and the euro as risk appetite returned.
The absence of Israel from the joint statement is the most conspicuous gap. The de-confliction cell for Lebanon includes the US, Iran, and the mediators. A durable ceasefire that does not explicitly bind Israel leaves an obvious pressure point.