Iran Strikes Hit Strait of Hormuz as Doha Talks Continue

The US military struck Iranian missile and drone launch sites on May 25, executing what CENTCOM described as a defensive operation near the Strait of Hormuz. The timing is the story: peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran are actively underway in Doha, where President Trump said discussions were “proceeding nicely.”

Traders now face a two-way bet. Bitcoin has historically sold off on acute military escalation and rallied on diplomatic breakthroughs. The question is which narrative wins the next 48 hours.

US Strikes Iranian Sites as Doha Talks Continue

The May 25 Operation

CENTCOM said the strikes hit command nodes, naval vessels, and assets that were preparing to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The trigger was an Iranian attack on three US Navy destroyers. No US forces were harmed. The Pentagon emphasized the defensive nature of the response.

The military engagement fits a pattern that has been building since 2025. Prior US strikes hit Iranian nuclear facilities. A tenuous ceasefire began in April 2026. Now this latest exchange tests whether the ceasefire holds.

Strait of Hormuz: The Real Leverage Point

Roughly a fifth of the world’s petroleum passes through the Strait of Hormuz. That makes the waterway the single most consequential chokepoint for global energy markets. Any disruption to shipping there sends oil prices higher and raises inflation expectations across asset classes.

Negotiations in Doha are reportedly focused on two core issues. First, reopening the Strait to normal commercial traffic. Second, establishing limits on Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile. Qatar and Pakistan are involved as mediators.

Why This Matters for Bitcoin

Historical Pattern: Sell the Missiles, Buy the Deal

Bitcoin has behaved more like a high-beta tech stock than a safe haven when missiles are actually flying. During acute escalations, traders de-risk across the board, and crypto tends to sell off. When headlines shift from “strikes” to “breakthroughs,” risk appetite returns fast, and Bitcoin is often one of the first assets to catch a bid.

In earlier phases of the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin surged past $72,000 during periods of diplomatic progress. That level now serves as a reference point for traders watching the Doha outcome.

The $72,000 Level as a Marker

The Two-Way Risk for Crypto Traders

What a Deal Would Unlock

A deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz would likely trigger a broad risk-on rally across every asset class. Oil prices would drop, easing inflation fears, and capital would flow back into growth assets. Bitcoin would almost certainly benefit. The mechanism is straightforward: lower energy costs reduce input prices across the economy, giving central banks more room to ease or hold rates steady. That environment historically favors crypto.

What Escalation Would Mean

If CENTCOM reports additional Iranian provocations that trigger further US responses, the risk-off move could accelerate. Bitcoin tends to correlate with equities during geopolitical shocks. A sustained escalation would likely push Bitcoin lower as traders reduce exposure to volatile assets.

For context, a prior escalation in this conflict triggered a $300 million crypto liquidation event, as covered in our analysis of US Strikes Iran, $300M Crypto Liquidation Hits Risk Assets. The same dynamic could repeat.

Decision Points: What to Watch Next

Doha Negotiation Signals

Traders should watch for any concrete language from Doha about timelines for reopening the Strait or uranium enrichment caps. A joint statement from Qatar or Pakistan as mediators would carry weight. The absence of progress would be a negative signal.

CENTCOM Activity

Any new CENTCOM statements about Iranian attacks or US defensive operations will move markets immediately. A lull in activity would support the deal narrative. A new strike would reinforce the escalation path.

For a broader view of how geopolitical risk interacts with crypto markets, see our crypto market analysis and the Bitcoin (BTC) profile.

Bottom line for traders: The next 48 hours will determine whether the market prices a Strait reopening or a renewed conflict. Bitcoin is the most liquid proxy for that binary outcome. Position size accordingly.