Iran Peace Deal Roadmap Whipsaws Oil, Dollar, Treasury Yields

In currencies, the euro was flat against the dollar amid stagnant Eurozone growth figures. The yen weakened 0.1% to 161.49 per dollar, nearing a two-year low, with speculators probing the intervention level at 161.95.

Sterling’s recent slide paused. Cable retested the long-term secular ascending channel support from the September 2022 low on Friday, printing an intraday low of 1.3163. The bounce took GBP/USD to 1.3262 early in the Asian session. Wong said short-term bullish momentum is absent – the hourly RSI remains capped below a key descending trendline at 50. The 1.3262-1.3280 zone now serves as a pivotal short-term resistance. A failure there keeps the bias bearish toward 1.3190 and 1.3160. A clearance and hourly close above 1.3280 would invalidate that view, potentially squeezing toward medium-term resistance at 1.3325.

The 60-day roadmap runs through late August. Markets will watch for any signs of breakdown in the talks, which would likely push crude back toward the recent highs and reinforce dollar demand.