Oil gapped higher at the open Monday, then reversed as Iran accepted nuclear inspectors. WTI support near $70, Brent resistance at the 200-day EMA. Next catalyst is the pace of Iran deal talks.
Alpha Score of 62 reflects moderate overall profile with moderate momentum, moderate value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
Oil gapped higher at the open Monday, then reversed as Iran accepted nuclear inspectors, signalling a de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran standoff. Light sweet crude (WTI) hit an early high but gave back the gain by midday. Brent followed the same pattern, opening above $85 before sliding.
Chris, a proprietary trader at FXEmpire, said the move is purely headline-driven. The rally came after a week of hostile exchanges between Washington and Tehran. The reversal came on the same day Iran agreed to allow inspectors back into its nuclear facilities. That progress, Chris said, suggests the market is pricing in peace.
The 200-day EMA offered resistance in both contracts. For WTI, that level sits near $80. For Brent, it is around $85. Chris sees a floor for WTI near $70, a zone he called very strong support based on technical analysis. Brent has a similar floor just above $70, with a gap from early March that remains unfilled. Filling that gap would complete a round trip from the war premium.
"All things being equal, it looks like the 200-day EMA offered resistance," Chris wrote. "I think we continue to see a market that you are fading rallies, at least for the short term."
Traders should track two levels. A break below $70 in WTI would signal that the peace premium has fully unwound and likely open a test of the March gap near $65. A hold above $70, combined with headlines that renew supply risk, would keep the range intact. The 200-day EMA on Brent at $85 caps the upside for now.
The next catalyst is the pace of Iran deal talks. Each step toward a formal agreement reduces the risk premium baked into crude. Each breakdown in negotiations pushes oil back toward the highs. Either way, the market is trading headlines, not fundamentals, and that makes for sharp reversals on any news.
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