Iran Demands Unconditional Asset Release, Stalling Nuclear Deal

Iran’s deputy secretary to the national security council stated that all of Iran’s frozen assets must be released and returned without conditions. The official added that Iran is “seeking the release of all funds held by the US and this is the legal right of Iran.” The demand hardens a key precondition that has stalled negotiations on a new memorandum of understanding with the United States.

The US position, articulated by President Trump, requires Iran to first dismantle its nuclear programme and deliver on promises before any sanctions are lifted or frozen funds are released. Iran demands the opposite: sanctions relief and access to frozen assets before or during any nuclear concessions. The dynamic mirrors the 2015 JCPOA negotiations, where Iran used delays to extract concessions without delivering on nuclear commitments.

For forex traders, the stalemate is not a headline risk to ignore. It directly affects the risk premium embedded in oil prices, safe-haven currencies, and the US dollar index. The following sections break down the exposure, timeline, and the triggers that would either confirm or weaken the current setup.

The Core Sticking Point: Unconditional Asset Release

The demand for unconditional release of frozen assets is one of four major preconditions that must be settled before any deal can be signed. The source notes that “nothing can be agreed until everything is agreed.” That all-or-nothing structure means a single unresolved precondition blocks the entire agreement.

Why This Precondition Matters for Markets

Frozen assets – estimated in the tens of billions of dollars – represent a significant liquidity injection for Iran’s economy. Unconditional release would allow Tehran to fund imports, stabilise the rial, and potentially increase oil exports without nuclear oversight. The US sees this as a reward without verified compliance. Iran sees it as a legal right and a prerequisite for trust.

The JCPOA Precedent That Haunts Current Talks

During the 2015 negotiations, Iran secured sanctions relief upfront while nuclear restrictions were phased in. Critics argue that Tehran used the interim period to expand its regional influence and ballistic missile programme. The current US administration is determined to avoid that sequence. The result is a standoff where neither side appears willing to blink first.

Exposure for Forex and Oil Markets

The direct forex pair – USD/IRR – is not freely traded on major platforms, the risk cascades into liquid markets through three channels.

Oil Price Risk Premium

WTI crude has already reclaimed $91 as Middle East tensions kept the bid alive. A collapse of nuclear talks would remove the prospect of increased Iranian oil supply returning to global markets. That would keep the OPEC+ production constraints as the dominant supply story, supporting prices. A breakthrough would add 1–2 million barrels per day of potential supply, pressuring crude lower.