India's kharif sowing faces risk as 60% of districts report deficient rainfall. A new western disturbance may ease dry spells, but heatwaves persist in key states.
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The India Meteorological Department reported Wednesday that a new western disturbance will affect northwestern India starting June 18, even as 60% of the country's districts recorded deficient or large deficient rainfall through the first 16 days of June. The monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 4, three days after its normal onset, and has so far covered only parts of the country.
Western disturbances are Mediterranean-origin storm systems that bring sudden rain, sharp winds, and cooler temperatures to northern India. The IMD expects this one to bring widespread rainfall to most northern states between June 17 and 23, with isolated thunderstorms in Delhi, Chandigarh, and Punjab. Meanwhile, heatwave conditions are forecast for parts of Bihar, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Telangana through June 22.
Of India's 741 districts, 245 are classified as deficient and 214 as large deficient for the June 1–16 period. In IMD terminology, large deficient means rainfall shortfall of more than 60% compared to normal. The deficits are concentrated in central and some northern states. The southwest monsoon has covered Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, most of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and the entire northeast. Conditions remain favourable for further advance into Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh over the next four to five days.
India's kharif sowing season runs from June through September, with harvesting starting around September–October. Key crops include rice, millets, sugarcane, groundnuts, and vegetables. The IMD advised farmers in Kerala and Tamil Nadu to ensure proper drainage for plantation crops like banana, coconut, ginger, and black pepper to minimize damage from heavy rainfall. The deficit across 60% of districts means many sowing areas are starting the season dry. The western disturbance will provide localized relief in the northwest but will not address deficits in central or southern states. Heatwave conditions in parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra over the same period could further stress young crops. Food inflation remains a concern for the Reserve Bank of India, which has flagged weather-related risks in recent policy statements. The IMD will continue to update the monsoon's advance as the western disturbance approaches. The next five to seven days will determine whether the deficit narrows or deepens ahead of the peak sowing window.
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