
Rice inflation hit 1.72% in June, tur turned positive at 0.85%, and oilseed prices rose 5.42% as kharif acreage declined sharply. Below-normal rainfall and delayed sowing are squeezing supply.
New Delhi: Reduced planting of key monsoon-season crops is pushing up retail prices, adding fresh inflationary pressure to an economy where food costs already weigh on household budgets.
Rice inflation rose to 1.72% in June from 0.23% in May as acreage fell 8.63% through July 10 versus the same period last year, government data show. The main kharif pulses – tur, urad and moong – also turned more expensive. Tur inflation swung to 0.85% in June from -1.77% in May. Urad inflation climbed to 2.16% from 0.89%, and moong to 1.71% from 1.15%. Their planting declined 30.29%, 29.71% and 10.62%, respectively, through July 10.
Oilseed inflation rose to 5.42% in June from 4.9% in May, with acreage down 21.1%.
Pulses are single-season crops, so supplies from one harvest must last until the next. Any delay in sowing or reduction in planted area raises concerns about future availability, said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. Pulse prices will stay elevated until there is greater clarity on crop prospects and actual harvest outcomes, he said.
Traders and wholesalers are holding onto produce in anticipation of better prices later, given below-normal rainfall and delayed sowing. That limits supply and pushes prices higher.
India is expected to get below-normal rainfall this year, with precipitation at about 90% of the Long Period Average, according to the India Meteorological Department. Rainfall was about 40% deficient in June, delaying sowing of all major crops from paddy and pulses to oilseeds and coarse grains. Heavy rain in the first week of July narrowed the deficit but did not close it. Over 44% of districts are still deficient, and 10% face large deficiencies, the IMD said.
The most vulnerable crops in a monsoon shortfall are pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds and cotton, according to a report by QuantEco Research. States with the lowest share of irrigated area – Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh – are the most exposed, the report added.
Inflation in millets such as jowar and ragi, promoted as alternate crops in vulnerable districts, is also rising.
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