
Brazil's cross-border stablecoin flows now exceed traditional capital movements, the IMF said, warning that weak custody rules and missing travel-rule enforcement create financial stability risks as Congress weighs new legislation.
The International Monetary Fund warned that Brazil's crypto market has grown large enough to pose financial stability risks, with cross-border stablecoin flows now exceeding traditional capital movements.
In its latest Financial System Stability Assessment, published this month, the IMF said crypto-based cross-border flows have been steadily rising since 2019 and now outpace volumes routed through conventional banking channels. Most of those flows are stablecoin-driven, favored by companies and retail users for their efficiency and tax advantages, the report found.
Stablecoin demand in Brazil tracks movements in the S&P 500, the VIX, and bitcoin prices, suggesting the flows respond to the same macro signals that drive traditional portfolio allocations. Domestic factors -- exchange rate swings, interest rate changes, policy uncertainty, and tax rule shifts -- also influence the volume, the IMF said.
The central bank has moved to regulate virtual asset service providers (VASPs), but the report said Brazil still lacks legal protections for customer assets held in custody and has not fully implemented international AML/CFT standards, including the Financial Action Task Force's travel rule for crypto transfers.
Those gaps matter more as the crypto system becomes more interconnected with traditional finance, the IMF said. Regulators will need to set up advanced reporting protocols and coordinate with foreign supervisors to contain spillover risks.
The report lands as Congress prepares to consider Bill 4308/2024, which would create a regulatory framework for stablecoins. The crypto industry has pushed back against provisions that would treat stablecoins as regulated securities, arguing the designation would stifle adoption.
Brazil's crypto market has drawn increasing attention from global standard-setters. The IMF's assessment effectively puts the country on watch for how it handles the intersection of digital assets and cross-border capital flows. The central bank has said it plans to consult on custody and segregation rules later this year.
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