Hormuz Shipping Collapse Fuels Oil Rally as U.S. Inventories Build

On the 2-hour chart, natural gas is consolidating at $2.75, right above the 50-period EMA at $2.76 and the 100-period EMA at $2.75. An ascending trendline from mid-August lows provides support. Price action between $2.84 and $2.86 has capped the recent breakout, leaving the market range-bound between the trendline and the moving average cluster. The RSI at 46 points to neutral-to-slightly bullish momentum. Resistance sits at $2.77, then $2.81, $2.84 and $2.88. On the downside, support is at $2.71 and $2.64. A break above $2.81 would bring $2.84–$2.88 into focus. A close below $2.71 would increase the likelihood of a pullback to $2.67.

WTI crude oil is trading around $86.42. The 2-hour chart shows price above the 50-period EMA at $84.82 and the 100-period EMA at $83.64, with the upper boundary of the rising channel near $87.24. Buyers are in control but have lost momentum. The RSI at 59 suggests bullish pressure without being overbought. Immediate resistance is $87.24, followed by $90.56 and $93.58. Support lies at $84.09, then $80.82 and $77.86. A break above $87.24 targets $90.56. A drop below $83.64 would signal a shift to bearish momentum.

Brent crude is trading near $93.44 after recovering from the $78 zone. Short-term price action remains bullish, with consolidation below resistance at $94.78. Price stays above the 50-period and 100-period EMAs. The RSI at 64 shows strong pressure but not yet overbought. First resistance is $94.78, then $98.65 and $102.02. Support is $91.12, followed by $86.76 and $83.30. Brent remains bullish while above $91.12. A sustained break above $94.78 makes $98.65 a likely target. A loss of the EMA cluster would signal fading momentum.

Persian Gulf security rests entirely on the U.S. and its allies. The most pessimistic scenario would see Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz entirely. The EIA's next weekly inventory report, due Wednesday, will provide the next snapshot of domestic supply and demand.