Grupo Aeroméxico June traffic drops 9% as domestic demand cools

Grupo Aeroméxico reported a 9% year-over-year drop in June passenger traffic, the airline said Thursday, with the decline concentrated entirely in the domestic market.

Domestic passenger counts fell 12% from a year earlier. International traffic rose 2%, a slower pace than the double-digit growth Aeroméxico recorded in the first quarter. Total load factor slipped to 85.1% from 86.2% in June 2025.

The airline operates the largest domestic network out of Mexico City's Benito Juárez International Airport, with roughly 60% of its seat capacity allocated to domestic routes. A sustained slowdown in that segment, which carries lower yields than international premium cabins, would pressure unit revenue through the peak summer travel season.

Aeroméxico did not attribute the decline to any single factor in the release. The drop comes after two years of strong post-pandemic recovery in Mexican air travel, during which the carrier's domestic passenger numbers regularly posted year-over-year gains of 8-15%.

Competition on domestic trunks has been intensifying. Volaris and Viva Aerobus have added capacity on routes out of Mexico City's newer Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA), which operates with lower airport fees than the crowded Benito Juárez hub. Aeroméxico's presence at AIFA is minimal.

The June numbers bring the second-quarter average domestic load factor to roughly 84%, down from 86% a year earlier. International load factor held near 87%.

Aeroméxico emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2022 and has since focused on debt reduction and fleet modernization. The carrier has been replacing older Boeing 737-800s with 737 MAX aircraft, which offer roughly 14% lower fuel burn per seat, a shift that helps protect margins when revenue softens.

Aeroméxico stock carries an Alpha Score of 75 out of 100, labeling the shares as "Moderate" within the Industrials sector. The traffic update comes ahead of the company's second-quarter earnings report, expected in late July. Analysts on average are projecting revenue of roughly MXN 20 billion and an operating margin near 9%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

A sustained domestic slowdown would test that margin. Fuel costs, the airline's single largest expense, have been relatively stable in June, with jet fuel prices in the U.S. Gulf Coast averaging roughly $2.15 per gallon. Any pickup in fuel costs combined with lower domestic loads would squeeze the spread between revenue and operating costs.

International demand remains a bright spot. Aeroméxico has been expanding its U.S. and Canada schedules through its joint venture with Delta Air Lines. June international traffic rose even as Delta's own transborder service recovered to pre-pandemic levels. That side of the business will need to carry more weight in the second half if domestic travel fails to reaccelerate.

More airline traffic data is due next week from Volaris and Viva Aerobus, which will show whether Aeroméxico's domestic decline is an isolated problem or a broader market softness.