Grad Unemployment Sits at 2.7% as AI Displaces White-Collar Work

A separate measure – underemployment among recent graduates – has ticked higher in surveys, with more 22‑ to 27‑year‑olds working in roles that do not require a degree. That group does not show up in the 2.7% figure.

The chain from AI adoption to labor‑market data runs through corporate hiring. Companies deploying AI for customer service or data analysis are not necessarily firing graduates. They are often not hiring as many new ones. That shows up in job postings, not in unemployment. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has fallen from 2:1 in early 2022 to roughly 1.1:1 now. The normalization predates AI. The current deployment wave has reinforced it.

For the Federal Reserve, the graduate unemployment rate informs the wage‑pressure calculation. If AI keeps productivity growing without pushing up wages, the central bank can tolerate a tighter labor market. The 2.7% print supports that view. The underemployment data requires a different reading; if graduates are taking lower‑paying work, wage growth for that cohort may be weaker than headline numbers suggest, economists note.

The next monthly jobs report lands the first Friday of August. It includes the first revision to the household survey's population controls, which could shift the graduate unemployment estimate by a few tenths. The BLS also publishes a quarterly underemployment rate for college graduates; the most recent showed a slight uptick. That series updates next in October.