Gold Crosses $4,300: Agnico Eagle and Alamos Gold in Focus

Gold crossed $4,300 an ounce last week, up 6% from $4,060 on June 10. The rally arrived without a single obvious catalyst. Some traders interpret the silence as a sign of underlying demand rather than speculative froth.

Two miners offer different ways to play it. Agnico Eagle Mines, with an Alpha Score of 58/100, is the lower-cost operator. The company runs mines in Canada, Finland, and Mexico and expects to produce roughly 3.5 million ounces this year. Every dollar gold stays above $2,000 widens its margin. Its all-in sustaining costs are guided below $1,200 an ounce, a level that makes it one of the lowest-cost producers in the sector. The stock trades at roughly 18 times forward earnings, above its five-year average of 14 times. The multiple expansion is justified if gold stays above $4,000. A pullback could compress it. For more on the cost advantage, see Agnico Eagle's Cost Edge Grows.

Alamos Gold, scoring 68/100, is the growth story. The company's Mulatos and Island Gold mines are targeting 600,000 ounces this year, with a longer-term expansion at Lynn Lake in Manitoba. That production growth gives it more leverage to the gold price than Agnico Eagle. The leverage works in both directions. Alamos trades at 22 times forward earnings, a premium that reflects its growth pipeline. The premium narrows if gold fails to hold recent gains. Alamos carries more debt and higher costs, around $1,350 an ounce. A 10% drop in gold would hit its cash flow harder. If gold keeps climbing, the revenue gains compound faster.

Based on its cost guidance, Agnico Eagle can generate free cash flow even if gold corrects to $3,500. The stock's current multiple leaves little room for error. The company's diversified mine base reduces operational risk. The July quarterly report will show whether cost control held during the quarter.

Alamos's higher cost base means a gold correction to $3,800 would erode a large portion of its margin. The company's debt load adds financial risk. The growth pipeline at Lynn Lake offers a longer-term payoff that could offset near-term volatility.

The speed of the rally raises questions about positioning. A 6% weekly gain in gold is rare without a clear macro shift. If the move is driven by short covering or speculative buying, a reversal could come as quickly as the advance. Real yields near 1.9% still argue against gold at these levels. The metal has ignored that relationship for weeks, as tracked in the gold profile. Some traders said the disconnect suggests the market is pricing in a weaker dollar or a Fed pivot that bond markets have not yet discounted.

Gold has now moved above a key resistance zone around $4,200 that capped it in late May. The breakout above that level on rising volume signals demand. The next test is whether the metal can hold above $4,300 on a weekly close. Central banks, particularly in Asia, have been consistent buyers this year, providing a floor under prices. That trend shows no sign of reversing, according to World Gold Council data.

AlphaScala rates Agnico Eagle at 58/100 and Alamos Gold at 68/100, both labeled Moderate. The scores reflect each company's financial health, valuation, and momentum relative to peers. For detailed data, visit the AEM stock page and AGI stock page.

The next data point is the June PCE inflation report, due late July. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, has run above 2.8% for months. A downside surprise bolsters the case for a September cut. An upside surprise pushes rate-cut expectations further into 2026. The July Federal Reserve meeting follows the PCE print. A hawkish statement pressures gold; a dovish tone supports it. For traders with positions, the watchlist is set.