Gift Nifty signals a 100-point gap-up opening as Wall Street's tech rally, led by Microsoft's strong guidance, lifts global risk sentiment. FPIs turn net buyers, buying over Rs 3,600 crore in the previous session.
Alpha Score of 71 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
Indian equities are set to open higher on the last trading day of July, with Gift Nifty trading near 24,450, about 100 points above the Nifty's previous close of 24,317.
A sharp rally on Wall Street led by Microsoft's stronger-than-expected guidance has lifted global risk appetite, spilling into Asian markets. South Korea's Kospi surged more than 15% on upbeat corporate earnings and renewed buying in semiconductor stocks. Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced more than 5%.
"Indian equity markets are poised for a steady start, extending their recent recovery, as a sharp rally on Wall Street and a broad rebound across Asian markets improve global risk sentiment," said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
Foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers in the previous session, with purchases exceeding Rs 3,600 crore despite the uncertain geopolitical backdrop. That is providing an additional boost to sentiment, Ponmudi said.
From a derivatives perspective, the setup looks constructive. India VIX edged up to 12.16 but remains near lower levels, suggesting volatility is contained. Maximum Put open interest sits at the 24,000 strike, followed by 24,200, indicating aggressive Put writing and a strengthening support base. Maximum Call open interest is at 24,600, then 24,500, marking the immediate resistance zone. The Put-Call Ratio stands at 1.29, reflecting a bullish tilt, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities.
Technically, the index has rallied 737 points from last Friday's low of 23,606 and holds above its 20-, 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages, confirming a strong uptrend, said Nandish Shah, Deputy Vice President at HDFC Securities. A sustained move above 24,368 could open the path toward 24,530, while the 24,040-24,140 band is expected to act as support on declines.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated. Crude oil prices have surged more than 20% over the past month, with WTI crude near $84 a barrel, as the U.S.-Iran conflict heightens concerns over global energy supplies and key shipping routes. For India, persistently high oil prices are the most significant external risk, widening the import bill, pressuring the rupee and complicating the inflation outlook, Ponmudi said.
"Geopolitical risks remain elevated as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, with the United States and Iran exchanging fresh strikes. Tehran's latest warning that the U.S. will 'pay the price' for its actions has reinforced concerns that the standoff is unlikely to ease in the near term," he added.
While the recovery in global technology stocks is expected to lend near-term support, investors remain watchful of geopolitical developments and their potential impact on energy prices, Ponmudi said.
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