Gas Price Relief Lifts Consumer Sentiment 9% From Record Low

The Conference Board's May confidence index, released May 26, told a similar story. Its write-in responses "skewed towards pessimism" and references to prices and oil and gas increased for a second straight month.

Despite the June bounce, sentiment remains well below where it started the year. Hsu said the latest reading is still 13% below January and 19% below June 2025. Consumers, she added, "feel burdened by the recent escalation in inflation and worry that higher inflation could remain stubborn going forward, particularly in the short run."

Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.6% from 4.8% in May. That is still well above the 3.4% reading in February, before the Iran conflict began. Long-run expectations fell more sharply, to 3.4% from 3.9%.

The data gives a snapshot of household mood just as the summer driving season picks up. Gas prices have pulled back from their May peaks. The path of inflation expectations will matter more for the Fed's next move. The broader S&P 500 has been sensitive to consumer sentiment data, especially for discretionary retail names. For now, the June survey suggests the worst of the pessimism may have passed. The recovery is fragile and uneven.