Galaxy's Thorn Cuts Clarity Act Odds to 30%, Warns 'Calendar Is Enemy'

Thorn said the practical deadline to begin the voting process is Thursday, July 30, not Aug. 7 when the formal recess begins. Leadership needs time to file cloture, run debate, process amendments and pass the bill. Every day spent negotiating shrinks the window to execute the floor strategy.

His read is that passing the bill requires a Republican negotiator – someone like Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) or Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) – to secure additional movement from the White House on ethics and then convince Democrats the resulting package is enough. That bargain needs to happen within days. "The calendar is no longer merely an obstacle. It is now the enemy," Thorn wrote.

The combined 616-page text brings together the Senate Agriculture and Banking Committee bills into four divisions. The most contested addition is a new ethics package. It bars senior officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while in office. Enforcement falls to the Justice Department alone, and the provision expires on Jan. 20, 2029.

Those elements are exactly what Democrats say do not go far enough. Seven negotiating Democrats issued a joint statement saying the current text falls short on ethics and illicit finance rules. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) called it dead on arrival. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the bill the "one-yard line" this week. Galaxy dropped its 2026 passage odds from 50% to 30%.

Thorn summed up the geometry: "One yard can be the longest yard on the field."