Galaxy Research cuts odds of CLARITY Act passing this year to 10%

Calendar pressure alone doesn't explain the full downgrade. Galaxy Research also points to persistent disagreements over two specific provisions that have proven difficult to resolve across party lines.

The first is an ethics clause covering how current and former government officials can hold or trade crypto assets. The second involves whether stablecoins should be permitted to offer yield to holders, a question that touches the interests of both traditional financial institutions and crypto-native issuers.

Both Republican and Democratic members have raised objections, which means the disagreement isn't cleanly partisan.

Over 200 firms, organized through the Stand With Crypto coalition, have publicly backed the legislation. Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the bill's most vocal champions, has continued to push for its passage.

The stablecoin dimension is particularly worth watching. A separate stablecoin-specific bill has also been moving through Congress, and the yield debate that's snarling the CLARITY Act is central to that legislation as well.

If the CLARITY Act doesn't pass this session, the bill would need to be reintroduced in the next Congress, restarting a committee process that took the better part of a year to complete.