Galaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 50%

Galaxy Research cut its probability estimate for the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, down from 60%. The firm cited a crowded Senate calendar and the absence of visible legislative progress.

The bill would create a federal regulatory framework for digital asset exchanges and stablecoins. Passage would replace the current patchwork of state-level oversight.

Galaxy said the bill still has a viable path forward. Procedural constraints are becoming a greater obstacle than policy disagreements, the firm said. The Senate faces a packed schedule ahead of the August recess, when the bill's path may become clearer or close.

The reduced odds follow a period of limited legislative action on crypto bills despite bipartisan support in earlier sessions. Galaxy's updated estimate reflects the growing weight of procedural timing over substantive debate.

The firm now sees a near-even chance for enactment. The next scheduled milestone for the bill is unclear.