Galaxy Research cuts Clarity Act passage odds to 30% after Democratic opposition hardens and Majority Leader Thune says pre-recess vote unlikely. The 616-page bill faces an uncertain September.
The final text of the Clarity Act landed Wednesday. The 616-page bill with 104 numbered sections merges market structure legislation from the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Banking Committee. Galaxy Research cut its estimated probability of passage in 2026 to 30%, analyst Alex Thorn said on X.
Majority Leader John Thune told reporters Wednesday that completing the legislation before the August recess “looks unlikely,” according to a person familiar with the conversation. He left the door open for a September push, though the calendar tightens after Labor Day with appropriations and the November midterm cycle.
The bill includes an ethics division barring senior officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while in office, effective through January 20, 2029. Self-custody protections get expanded language. Fraud provisions are layered in. The bill also wraps in amendments to the GENIUS Act, covering stablecoin regulation.
Democratic opposition landed hard. Senator Elizabeth Warren called the text a potential tool for criminals and cartels. Seven Democratic senators who had been negotiating with Republicans on crypto policy issued a joint statement saying the bill “falls short” on ethics and consumer protection. The joint statement came after weeks of closed-door talks and signals that bipartisan support was close.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon publicly supported the Clarity Act, calling it “not perfect” a constructive step. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has been more critical of the stablecoin rules in the bill, warning they could reward non-bank issuers. Both banks have active digital-asset teams directly affected by the legislation.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded $225.2 million in net outflows on July 23, breaking a seven-session inflow streak. The outflows came the day after the Clarity Act text was published. Traders said the move reflected general uncertainty around the bill’s fate, though the ETF flows have an independent seasonal pattern around the July options expiry.
Galaxy’s 30% estimate dropped from an earlier view closer to 50%, Thorn said. The narrowing window and the hardening Democratic line drove the revision. The estimate does not account for potential changes in the bill’s text if Republicans try to woo back Democratic votes.
For broader context, the Goldman CEO’s support marked a rare break from the industry’s earlier opposition to stablecoin provisions. The CFTC’s single commissioner remains a structural constraint on crypto oversight without new legislation.
The Senate is scheduled to begin its August recess on August 7. A fall push would face a crowded floor schedule and a White House that has not taken a public position on the Clarity Act.
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