Crypto▼ Bearish
Galaxy Digital Slashes Odds of CLARITY Act Passage to 10%
Galaxy Research cut CLARITY Act passage odds to 10% after the Senate delayed a vote. With Congress stalled, the SEC and CFTC are advancing their own crypto rules, though agency measures lack legislative durability.
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Galaxy Research cut its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 10%. The Senate declined to schedule a vote before the August recess after negotiations failed to resolve disputes over ethics controls, community bank concerns about stablecoin provisions, and developer protections under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. Concerns from illicit finance groups added another obstacle, Galaxy said in a note.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has not scheduled a floor vote. The chamber returns September 14 and plans to adjourn around October 2 for midterm election activity, leaving roughly three weeks for legislative work. Galaxy said the timeline leaves limited room for the bill.
The CLARITY Act cleared a bipartisan Senate Banking Committee markup in May, raising expectations for progress. Support among senators weakened as the disputes piled up, Galaxy said.
With Congress stalled, the SEC and CFTC have advanced their own measures. Galaxy said the SEC is preparing two exemptions. One, called Reg Crypto, would establish a pathway for public cryptoasset issuance. The other, the Innovation Exemption, would address secondary trading of tokenized securities within decentralized finance.