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Galaxy Digital Cuts CLARITY Act Odds to 50% on Senate Clock
Polymarket odds sit at 41% with lawmakers still lacking a merged text. Thorn says a leadership commitment to schedule a July floor vote could lift odds back to 60%.
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Galaxy Digital lowered its estimated probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50% from 60%, citing a shrinking Senate calendar and the absence of a unified public text. Alex Thorn, the firm's head of research, wrote that time rather than the bill's contents has become the biggest obstacle to passage.
The Senate remains adjourned until July 13. The August recess looms. Before that, lawmakers must handle FISA reauthorization and the annual defense bill. President Trump tied his support for a housing bill to passage of the SAVE Act, further crowding the floor schedule. Thorn called floor time the Senate's scarcest resource.
As covered in an earlier AlphaScala analysis, the CLARITY Act faces a compressed window. Senator Cynthia Lummis has said the Senate plans to release the final bill text around July 4 for public review, with floor consideration possible later in July. No text has appeared yet.
Beyond the calendar, several policy disputes remain open. Ethics provisions continue to divide lawmakers even after a conflict-of-interest amendment was stripped during committee markup. Law enforcement organizations have sought changes to developer protections in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. The Justice Department pushed back this week, saying the CLARITY Act would not weaken investigations into terrorism financing or drug trafficking.