
Senate Republicans aim for a July vote on the crypto market structure bill, but Galaxy Digital sees only a 50% chance in 2026 as negotiations continue on key provisions.
The CLARITY Act's path to law in 2026 just got narrower. Galaxy Digital lowered its approval odds to 50%, even as Senate Republicans keep pressing for a vote when lawmakers return from recess.
Behind closed doors, congressional staff, White House officials, and crypto industry representatives are still negotiating, journalist Eleanor Terrett reported. The Senate is in recess until July 13. The talks aim to resolve differences between the versions of the crypto market structure bill produced by the Banking and Agriculture Committees.
The sticking points include ethics requirements, anti-money laundering rules, and how to regulate digital asset markets. Negotiators need to settle those before the bill can move to a Senate floor vote.
Even if they finalize a deal before lawmakers return, the calendar is tight. Majority Leader John Thune has said the National Defense Authorization Act will take priority when the Senate resumes in mid-July, Terrett reported. That could push CLARITY Act consideration to late July or the first week of August.
Timing matters because many observers think the bill needs Senate approval before the August recess. Missing that window would make it much harder to pass before the end of the 2026 session.
The vote math is also tough. The legislation needs 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans hold 53 seats. Full GOP support is not guaranteed. Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul opposed the earlier GENIUS Act, so Democratic votes will be needed.
Senior Republicans are still encouraging a July vote. Senator Tim Scott posted on X that he backs Thune's timeline. Scott said the bipartisan proposal would provide clearer regulatory rules for digital assets, strengthen consumer protections, and help keep innovation in the U.S. He urged lawmakers to move the legislation forward.
Galaxy Digital's odds cut reflects the political and procedural hurdles. The firm now sees a 50% chance of passage in 2026.
Negotiators have until July 13 to resolve their differences before the Senate returns. Whether they reach a compromise will determine if the CLARITY Act gets a floor vote in July or loses momentum heading into the summer recess.
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