Crypto▼ Bearish
Galaxy cuts CLARITY Act odds to 30% as Senate clock ticks
Galaxy Digital cut CLARITY Act passage odds to 30% and said the Senate has four days to reach a deal before August recess. Seven Democrats say the latest bill still falls short.
Continue with
Galaxy Digital lowered its estimate for CLARITY Act passage this year to 30% from 50%, telling clients the Senate has four working days to reach a deal before the August recess.
In a July 24 note, the crypto investment firm said lawmakers need an agreement by July 30 to leave enough time for floor proceedings before senators leave Washington. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of research, told clients the time for incremental negotiations was over and called for a last-ditch effort.
The warning came two days after Senate Republicans released an updated 616-page combined version of the crypto market-structure bill. The text merges measures approved by the Banking and Agriculture committees. It adds new ethics restrictions for senior federal officials, including the president, vice president, members of Congress, and federal judges, barring them from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrencies while in office. The legislation also expands law-enforcement provisions and makes changes to stablecoin oversight under the GENIUS Act.
Seven Democrats involved in the negotiations – Sens. Mark Warner, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, and Raphael Warnock – said the latest proposal still fell short. They called for stronger protections on ethics and consumer safeguards, along with illicit finance and market integrity, while saying they would continue negotiating.
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. The CLARITY Act would need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Galaxy expects Sens. Josh Hawley and Rand Paul to oppose the measure. Sen. Mitch McConnell has not voted since his June hospitalization. Supporters may begin with about 50 dependable Republican votes, the firm said, though it stressed the figure was based on public statements and reporting, not a confirmed whip count.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters this week he did not expect lawmakers to finish all pending legislation before the summer break. He left open the possibility of starting CLARITY. "I would like to at least get Clarity started," Thune said. "We'll see where the votes are."