Friday's Macro Check: SpaceX IPO, Retail, and Wealth

SpaceX's IPO launched Friday as the marquee summer event for a market still riding the AI wave. North American indices sit near record highs after the first half's tech rally, and the offering will test whether momentum can sustain valuations that already price in aggressive growth. A strong debut would reinforce the narrative that AI-related equity demand has room to run. A weak one would raise questions about saturation, even if the company itself isn't purely an AI play.

Elsewhere, Toronto's condo bust has left large tracts of retail space empty. Tenants were evicted or left, and developers shelved projects as pre-sales dried up, Garry Marr reported. The vacancies add a new stress point to Canada's commercial real estate market, which was already adjusting to higher rates and slower population growth in some corridors.

Canadian household wealth ticked higher to $18.6 trillion, supported by gains in both equities and real estate. The figure masks divergence: financial assets lifted the aggregate, while home equity gains may prove harder to sustain if the condo slowdown spreads. The stock market's contribution is concentrated in tech and financials, leaving the household balance sheet exposed to a rotation or correction.

Taken together, the three stories sketch an economy where asset prices are buoying consumer balance sheets even as real estate construction falters and equity demand remains concentrated. The next data points–CPI, retail sales, and the Fed's June meeting–will clarify whether that divergence can persist or forces a recalibration.