Fanatics' FIFA collectibles deal hands it the global soccer market. Revenue expected at $5bn, antitrust case ongoing. See the risks for collectors and investors.
Alpha Score of 54 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, weak value, weak quality, weak sentiment.
Fanatics locked in exclusive licensing rights for FIFA World Cup collectibles starting in 2031, a deal that hands the company the flagship property in global soccer. The agreement, announced May 7, positions Fanatics to displace Panini as the licensee for the world's most-watched sporting event. The 2022 World Cup final drew 1.42 billion viewers, compared with 127 million for Super Bowl LIX.
Fanatics CEO Michael Rubin told CNBC on May 7 that the collectibles division alone is expected to generate $5 billion in revenue this year, while the broader company–spanning merchandising, a sportsbook, a prediction market, and events–is on track for $14 billion.
The FIFA deal extends a consolidation run that began with the $500 million purchase of Topps in 2022 and the acquisition of exclusive MLB, NBA, and NFL trading card licenses. The result is a market structure where Panini, the only other large-scale competitor, has lost its most valuable property and is exploring a sale. The American Economic Liberties Project (AELP) published a report in March that called the consolidation a fundamental change for collectors.
The FIFA agreement adds a sport with a fan base that dwarfs any U.S. league. Under the deal, debut patches will appear on jerseys at this year's World Cup. The patches will be removed after the match and distributed as exclusive trading cards once the full licensing term begins in 2031. Fanatics introduced this scarcity engine in the 2023 MLB season, where one-of-one cards have sold for thousands on eBay. The company has replicated the model across Formula 1 and the NBA.
Panini America filed an antitrust lawsuit in 2023, alleging Fanatics attempted to "monopolize the markets for Major U.S. Professional Sports Leagues trading cards." The case is ongoing. Panini argued that without redress, "consumers will suffer, prices will rise, quality will fall, and innovation will be stifled."
Fanatics countersued, claiming Panini "has become complacent, failing to invest in marketing or innovation as it funnels profits back to its owners in Italy while openly trying to sell its business for nearly a decade." Fanatics described Panini's allegations as "meritless" in a statement to CNBC and said it "remains committed to creating the best possible collector experience across the globe." The company declined to comment on broader monopoly claims.
The AELP report found collectors reporting "significant price increases for boxes and packs, with some products doubling in cost within a year of Fanatics taking over production." The report stated: "Before Fanatics' acquisitions, competition between Topps and Italian brand Panini drove innovation in card design, quality, and pricing. Now, with Panini's exclusive licenses expired and Topps under Fanatics control, Upper Deck remains the only competitor, and only in hockey."
Ricardo Fort, founder of Fort Consulting, told CNBC that adult collectors driven by "nostalgia, scarcity, and investment potential" have become a major segment. He noted that reduced competition could lead to higher prices and fewer choices, a company with broad rights could invest more in innovation, technology, authentication, and global distribution.
Panini holds collectibles licenses for the WNBA, NASCAR, and LIV Golf, the FIFA loss removes its flagship property. In October 2025, Reuters reported that Panini had hired Citi as a financial adviser for a possible sale. Citi declined to comment.
Panini also faces reputational damage from a 2019 lawsuit over unfulfilled "redemption cards"–cards consumers could exchange for specific autographed copies. Attorney Larry Centola, who represented plaintiffs, told CNBC that over 10,000 collectors were affected. The case was dismissed after the firm was denied class action certification, Centola said he still receives emails from customers with similar experiences.
Upper Deck holds the NHL trading card license under a long-term extension that began in 1990. In January, Upper Deck introduced its own one-of-one debut cards with game-worn jersey swatches, mirroring Fanatics' strategy. The NHL also has a 10-year agreement with Fanatics for team jerseys, the league kept Upper Deck for cards.
Collectors face the risk of continued price increases if competition narrows further. Investors in Fanatics–which remains privately held, with stakes held by the NFL (which led a $1.5 billion funding round in 2022) and other leagues–benefit from revenue growth driven by scarcity and global expansion. The broader thesis rests on a Morgan Stanley estimate that the sports collectibles market is worth $100 billion.
Morgan Stanley (MS) carries an Alpha Score of 54/100, labeled Mixed, in the Financials sector. The bank's estimate underpins the investment case for Fanatics' growth, the monopoly risk introduces execution uncertainty.
A ruling against Fanatics in the Panini case could force licensing changes. The AELP report could attract attention from the Federal Trade Commission or the Department of Justice, no formal inquiry has been announced.
If Panini sells to a buyer with deep pockets and existing distribution–a media company or a private equity firm with sports assets–it could preserve a competitive alternative. The Citi mandate suggests a sale process is underway, no buyer has emerged publicly.
Upper Deck could expand beyond hockey if it wins licenses from leagues that want to avoid single-supplier dependence. The NHL extension shows that some leagues are willing to maintain multiple partners.
If Fanatics secures exclusive deals with the Premier League, La Liga, or UEFA Champions League, the competitive landscape narrows further. Each new license reduces the pool of properties available to Panini or Upper Deck.
If Panini cannot find a buyer and continues to lose licenses, it may exit the market entirely. That would leave Fanatics and Upper Deck as the only two players, with Upper Deck confined to one sport.
If collectors accept higher prices and fewer choices as the new normal, the market will not generate the consumer pressure that typically triggers regulatory review.
For collectors, the practical question is whether to buy into the scarcity model or wait for a competitive response. For investors, the question is whether Fanatics' revenue growth can outrun the legal and regulatory headwinds. The FIFA deal locks in a massive audience, it also locks in scrutiny that will define the sector's trajectory over the next decade.
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Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.