Eurozone Industrial Output Misses as Irish Pharma Volatility Strikes Again

Eurozone industrial production fell 0.2% month-on-month in May, missing the consensus estimate of +0.2%. The miss was driven largely by a 5.2% drop in Irish output, where pharmaceutical and technology sector volatility has been a recurring pattern. Ireland's industrial output fell 10.2% in January, a swing that also weighed on the country's first-quarter GDP.

Excluding energy production, the headline decline for May was steeper, though the data is backward-looking and unlikely to shift the European Central Bank's near-term stance. The ECB is expected to hold rates steady at its July meeting. Markets have fully priced a 25-basis-point cut for September, with about 42 bps of total easing priced in by year-end.