
eToro's Yoni Assia forecasts a crypto rally to record levels even as his platform reports a sharp decline in trading volume. The divergence sets up a positioning test for the second half.
eToro CEO Yoni Assia told CNBC’s “Money Movers” that he expects cryptocurrencies to rise back near all-time highs later this year. The forecast arrived alongside the company’s latest earnings results, which disclosed a significant drop in crypto trading volume. The pairing of a bullish call with shrinking activity on the platform itself creates a concrete decision point: is the volume decline a warning sign, or the kind of retail washout that often precedes the next leg up?
eToro’s disclosed decline in crypto trading volume aligns with broader industry data. Centralized exchange volumes have been trending lower, and retail participation has cooled from the speculative frenzy seen in prior quarters. For a platform that derives a large portion of its revenue from crypto trading, the drop is a direct hit to transaction-based income.
Declining volume during a price pullback is not unusual. The data point becomes useful because of the contrast with the CEO’s forward guidance. When the head of a major retail brokerage publicly calls for a return to all-time highs while his own platform sees activity dry up, it forces a question about the signal embedded in that volume data. One read is that retail traders have already capitulated or lost interest, removing a source of selling pressure. Another read is that the platform is simply talking its book. The better market read is to treat the volume drop as a positioning clue: if retail is underweight and sitting out, the marginal buyer in the next rally is likely to be institutional or algorithmic, which changes the speed and structure of any move.
Assia’s forecast is not asset-specific. The path to all-time highs runs through Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin’s record near $69,000 was set in November 2021. Ethereum’s high near $4,800 came the same month. Reclaiming those levels would require a substantial rally from the ranges that have prevailed through much of the current cycle.
For the call to play out, several conditions would likely need to align. First, spot Bitcoin ETF flows would need to sustain or accelerate the net inflows seen earlier in the year. Second, the macro backdrop–particularly Federal Reserve rate expectations–would need to cooperate, as crypto has been highly correlated with risk-on positioning. Third, regulatory developments such as the CLARITY Act draft, which could exempt Bitcoin and Ether from SEC securities oversight, would need to progress from draft to law, removing a persistent overhang on exchange and token risk.
None of these conditions are priced in. The CEO’s statement is a directional bet that they will materialize before year-end. For traders, the statement is less a prediction to trade blindly and more a catalyst calendar to monitor: ETF flow data, Fed minutes, and Congressional markup sessions become the checkpoints that either validate or undermine the thesis.
The immediate takeaway is that a high-profile industry executive is willing to put a bullish stamp on the second half of the year even as his own platform’s numbers show retail fatigue. That divergence is the kind of setup that can produce sharp moves if the crowd is caught offside. The risk is that the volume decline is not a sentiment trough but a structural shift–traders moving to decentralized venues, or simply leaving the asset class after the last cycle’s drawdowns.
A practical framework is to watch for a volume bottom on major exchanges. If weekly spot volumes stop falling and begin to tick higher while prices hold a range, that would be an early confirmation that the retail exodus is ending. A break above the 200-week moving average on Bitcoin, which has historically separated bull and bear phases, would be a stronger technical signal. Without those confirmations, the CEO’s call remains a high-conviction view that needs price and volume to catch up.
The next concrete marker is the quarterly rebalancing of crypto indices and the associated ETF flow data due in the coming weeks. A sustained inflow print would give the all-time-high narrative its first real foothold in hard data rather than executive commentary.
Drafted by the AlphaScala research model and grounded in primary market data – live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.