
The Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 15.6 in July from 5.70, well above the 8.80 estimate, as new orders and shipments picked up sharply.
New York factory activity rebounded sharply in July, with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s headline index climbing to 15.6 from 5.70 in June, the New York Fed reported Monday. Economists had expected a reading of 8.80.
The gain erased June’s dip and brought the index back near the 19.6 level seen in May. The survey’s new orders and shipments components both picked up “sharply,” the Fed said, while employment rose for a sixth straight month. Price increases remained elevated, though the pace of input cost growth eased slightly. Supply availability continued to worsen, a sign that lingering bottlenecks are still constraining production.
Six-month forward expectations held at a solid level, suggesting manufacturers expect the improvement to persist. The survey’s future general business conditions index stood at 30.0, down a touch from 32.0 in June but still well above the pre-pandemic average.
The data point to a manufacturing sector that is regaining momentum after a soft patch in late spring. That could give the Federal Reserve room to hold rates steady at its July 30-31 meeting, though the easing in input costs may reinforce the case for a cut later this year. The dollar edged higher after the release, with the EUR/USD pair slipping below 1.0900 as traders trimmed bets on an aggressive Fed easing cycle.
Treasury yields rose modestly on the session, with the two-year note climbing 3 basis points to 4.52%. The market is now pricing in roughly 65 basis points of cuts by year-end, down from 70 before the data.
The Empire State index is one of the earliest monthly reads on U.S. factory conditions. The Philadelphia Fed’s similar gauge for July is due Thursday.
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