
ECB's Dolenc sees no urgency to hike in July if energy costs stay subdued and Middle East tensions do not escalate. A wait-and-see approach until September could be appropriate.
The European Central Bank can hold rates steady at its July meeting if the Middle East situation does not escalate and energy costs stay near current levels, Governing Council member Primoz Dolenc said Tuesday.
Speaking at the ECB's annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, Dolenc said a pause could be warranted if commodity-market gyrations do not spread further and second-round effects do not appear. "I do not believe there is any urgency to consider further policy tightening if oil and gas prices remain subdued," he said. "Based on the data available today, a wait-and-see approach until September could be appropriate."
The ECB raised rates this month for the first time since 2023. Markets still price another quarter-point hike by year-end. Policymakers are studying how US-Iran peace talks and a drop in energy prices are affecting euro-zone inflation.
Dolenc warned circumstances can change quickly with several weeks still until the next policy decision and markets still volatile. The Slovenian central banker cautioned that the geopolitical backdrop has not fully calmed down. "We have seen over the past few days that hostilities have resumed," he said. "While everyone hopes for a lasting resolution, I do not believe the conflict will be resolved anytime soon. As a result, uncertainty remains elevated."
Some officials speaking in Sintra have signaled the price shock triggered by conflict is not over and that it remains to be seen how months of elevated energy costs will ripple through the economy. Dolenc said he would not read too much into the latest inflation numbers, which showed slower price gains in the euro zone's biggest three economies. "We will need further evidence to be confident that inflationary pressures are easing on a sustained basis," he said. "A renewed policy response could become warranted if oil prices were to rise significantly above the assumptions underlying our projections in early June."
The ECB's next rate decision is July 24.
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