Dow Adds 180 Points to Record Close on Geopolitical Easing

The market is pricing in a headline-based improvement, not a confirmed ceasefire. Without a verifiable step in diplomacy or a sustained decline in oil, the rotation could reverse just as quickly. The next 72 hours will determine whether the move has momentum or is a one-day repricing.

Three factors to watch:

• Crude oil price: A close below $80 on Brent crude would confirm that the supply-risk premium is unwinding.
• Diplomatic follow-through: Formal announcements of ceasefires or pullbacks matter more than unnamed sources.
• Bond yields: If the 10-year Treasury yield rises on growth optimism rather than inflation fear, the rotation has genuine support.

The Next Decision Point

The trajectory of oil prices and the tone of official statements from the involved parties will set the tone for the next session. A rebound in crude on a geopolitical headline would cut the legs out of the rally. A sustained decline below the pre-escalation range validates the bullish read. For now, the market is giving the benefit of the doubt. The risk-reward for adding new long exposure at record highs hinges entirely on the next set of headlines. Without a confirming drop in oil and a verifiable step in diplomacy, the rally remains vulnerable to a snapback.

Similar dynamics played out in Asian markets, where the Nifty50 and Sensex rallied as crude oil retreated and geopolitical risk premium receded. Those moves reinforced the global risk-on tone.