
Dollar index held above 100 support after June CPI came in softer than expected. Traders said the bullish structure remains intact as long as that level holds.
The dollar index fell Wednesday, breaking below trendline support at 100.40 after softer-than-expected June CPI data. The move tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 97.44-101.55 rally but held above the 100 psychological level, traders said.
The index touched a one-month low but closed above 100. The 100 level is both a psychological barrier and a Fibo retracement that kept the larger bullish structure intact, traders said.
The dollar's broader outlook remained supported by the relative strength of the US economy, traders said. The US is less exposed to energy shocks than other western economies, they said, and the greenback acts as a safe-haven asset. The recent ceasefire in the Middle East, which contributed to the softer inflation data, has since been undermined by renewed US-Iran conflict and the closure of the Hormuz strait, which could fuel inflation, traders said.
That dynamic may limit further dollar weakness as long as the price stays above 100, traders said. A close back above the broken trendline near 100.40 would signal a false break and point to a test of the 20-day moving average at 100.82.
The index settled at 100.25 on Friday.
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