Dollar holds near 104.50 as Middle East tensions lift haven demand

The dollar held near 104.50 on the DXY index Friday, supported by safe-haven flows as Middle East tensions persisted. The yen stayed weak past 158 per dollar, while the euro slipped below $1.09.

Traders are watching the June housing starts and import price data due later in the session, though the macro calendar is light relative to the geopolitical risk premium already priced in. The dollar's resilience comes despite a softer-than-expected Empire State manufacturing index Thursday, which had briefly pushed the DXY below 104.

Crude oil futures edged higher on supply concerns tied to the Red Sea disruption, adding to the dollar's bid through the commodity channel. Gold held near $2,460, supported by the same haven flows.

The next catalyst for the dollar is the July 25 GDP print, which will test whether the economy can sustain the current rate path.